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On the high seas, 64% of ship sinks are due to a single phenomenon. They are not caused by mechanical defects or crew errors, but by “rogue waves”. These monsters, which can grow to over 30 meters tall, form under certain nautical conditions and when large waves combine to increase their strength. They can even flood large container ships, though prepared captains know when the seas are ripe for danger.

Rogue waves are building up in the economy with increasing frequency. They come from technological and economic forces, geopolitical changes, and even pandemics. When waves of change converge, they can obliterate elaborate strategies based on the assumption of gradual market development. But – in contrast to fates on the open sea – commercial rogue waves also offer great potential for turning established industrial orders around and generating enormous company growth quickly. The trick is to understand their likelihood and prepare your company for the resilience if they are hit.

Jonathan Brill, recently the global futurologist at HP, helped set the company’s strategy for resilient growth, and it benefited during the pandemic while many others struggled. I pre-read his upcoming book Rogue Waves, which will be out in August. In this piece, I’m going to share some of the highlights of his rigorous, far-reaching, and actionable research.

Brill represents three key requirements to success as rogue waves hit harder and more frequently. They underpin a resilient strategy. These are:

1. Awareness: Which trends can lead to radical changes? When can you answer successfully at the earliest and at the latest? What opportunities and risks do they entail? What indicators do you need to look out for?
2. Change of behavior: What specific steps can you take to better understand your surroundings? How can you generate potential future opportunities for your company? What steps can you take to maximize your options for an uncertain future? How do you create a successful portfolio of bets on how the markets will change?
3. Culture: How do you bring these competencies beyond strategic planning into the operational processes of the organization so that superiors take intelligent risks and adapt quickly to changing contexts?

At a high level, you can think about five factors that will affect your willingness to survive and benefit from rogue waves.

1. Guide: Do your governance systems encourage a clear assessment of risk, including relatively unlikely events that could have a large impact? Do they allow quick reactions when conditions change? Are they encouraging people to create new growth options?
2. Do you need to search: Are you looking beyond what customers say what they want to deeper motivations that can drive tectonic change?
3. Added value: Every company needs to let the light shine through normal business practices, but it should do so in a way that takes resilience into account rather than ignoring risk. One only has to look at the automakers now desperate for parts to see how strategies that seemed economical in the short term caused these companies to miss great opportunities.
4. Performance measurement: New growth options don’t bring big profits every year. Sometimes the world moves really slowly. But does your performance measurement system provide incentives for executives to lay the groundwork for quick shifts when circumstances require?
5. Willingness to take risks: Is Risk Just Something You Want To Avoid? How do you see the benefits of potential events and take small, smart risks that, in the right situations, produce big profits?

There are few real certainties in business. Waves of rogue – and smaller ones too – can ruin plans that assume you really know the future of your business. How do you position yourself in dealing with the unknown? Are you a keen card player, know the odds and place smart bets? Or, better yet, are you the casino that created a system to deal with a wide variety of uncertainties? The sharp card player can win a single hand, but it is the casino that almost always wins the night.

To be the casino, you should look at your system in terms of these five dimensions. This is how you deal with rogue waves – by taking a bit of risk, being resilient when the seas change, and using those events to rise above your overwhelmed rivals.

Contribution to Branding Strategy Insider by Steve Wunker, author of JOBS TO BE DONE: A Roadmap for Customer-Centered Innovation

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