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“We are calling on both the UK and the EU to come back to the table and come up with solutions that remove trade barriers and give exporters a chance to fight,” said Hannah Essex, co-executive director of the UK Chambers of Commerce, in a statement on Monday .

“The difficulties exporters face are not just ‘teething troubles’. They are structural issues which, if left unaddressed, can lead to long-term, potentially irreversible, weakness in the UK export sector,” she added .

The deal was bad for trade. But it has also contributed to recent violence and growing anger in Northern Ireland.

During the negotiations on the Brexit agreement, the problem of the movement of goods between Ireland, which is a member of the European Union, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, proved to be the most difficult. Respecting the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, which ended three decades of sectarian violence, meant avoiding the return of a border on the island of Ireland.

Instead, Johnson agreed that Northern Ireland would continue to be subject to EU market rules and establish a trade border along the Irish Sea to monitor them. This angered pro-British trade unionists who oppose Northern Ireland being treated differently from the rest of the UK. Johnson had promised in 2019 that there would be no controls on the movement of goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Unrest and violence in the streets of Belfast this month have raised fears of a return to Northern Ireland’s troubled past and prompted a US State Department spokesman to warn that the Good Friday Agreement cannot become “a victim of Brexit”.

Exports collapse

The UK government has not released an assessment of the economic impact of Brexit and continues to promote its alleged benefits.

A government spokesman told CNN Business that the Brexit deal “will protect quality jobs and investment across the UK and ensure that companies continue to act effectively and sell to their customers in the European Union”.

However, a survey of over 1,000 UK business executives conducted by EY and lobby group London First in late February found that three-quarters of their operating model were disrupted After the end of the Brexit transition period, half expect it to continue in the long term.

UK exports to the European Union plunged 41% in January versus December, and many companies say their ability to continue trading the bloc is due to issues arising from the trade deal, according to the Bureau of National Statistics , endangered is. Companies that were previously able to bring goods to Europe within a few hours of placing an order are now faced with lengthy and costly delays due to new customs and food safety controls.

A survey of 2,900 UK exporters by the UK Chambers of Commerce published on Monday found that 41% of businesses reported a drop in export sales in the first quarter, due to Brexit and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

UK exporters are struggling to cope with the “sheer volume of paperwork” they now have to deal with, according to Suren Thiru, head of the UK Chamber of Commerce economics department.

There is also confusion about paying sales tax, as well as confusion over new rules of origin, as companies have very little accessible advice from the UK government on these issues, he told CNN Business. The rules of origin determine where goods, including raw materials and components, come from and whether they should be subject to customs duties.

“The fact is that companies trading with the EU have not yet had to know or understand customs. And there is not enough capacity in the EU [customs] Industry to provide the support they need, “said Anna Jerzewska, founder of the international trade consultancy Trade & Borders.

While larger companies can absorb new costs, small companies are particularly hard hit. A survey by the Association of Small Businesses of 132 exporters in March found that 23% have temporarily ceased sales to the European Union and five have ceased permanently.

“Smaller traders are struggling and wondering whether exports are more worthwhile,” said the organization’s national chairman, Mike Cherry, in a statement last month.

Can the deal be fixed?

On Monday, a group of lawmakers, business leaders and economists announced an independent commission to review UK trade deals with Europe and the rest of the world.

The UK Trade and Business Commission, organized by Virgin Chairman Peter Norris, will make recommendations to the government on how to improve these deals.

“We will look carefully at the implications of these deals, especially the small businesses that are bearing the brunt of the new bureaucracy on our borders,” Conservative MP Roger Gale, a member of the commission, said in a statement. “This is about putting ideology aside and finding a pragmatic, evidence-based way forward,” he added.

The situation is particularly urgent for food producers, whose exports have been all but wiped out by the new trade regulations. From January 1st, all plant and animal products entering the European Union require an export health certificate (EHC), which must be stamped by a state-certified veterinarian.

This has prevented the Cheshire Cheese Company from selling to online shoppers in the European Union as the cost of a certificate is many times the average retail price of £ 25 ($ 34) to £ 50 ($ 69) per order.

Before Brexit, those sales totaled around £ 180,000 ($ 247,800), or 20% of the company’s revenue, and were on track to hit £ 250,000 ($ 344,000) this year, according to Managing Director Simon Spurrell. “We used to have a lot of opportunities, we looked at 27 different countries. That quickly became a pond,” said Spurrell.

UK food and beverage exports plummeted in January, a result of a 76% drop in sales to the European Union compared to the same month last year, according to the Food and Drink Federation. Salmon exports fell by 98%, beef by 92% and feed by 80%. Whiskey exports fell by 63%.

“The solution is to swallow our pride and make a veterinary deal,” said L. Alan Winters, founding director of the UK’s Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex. “Without them, we’re going to see little chance of animal products increasing,” he added.

There are several other areas that also need attention.

For example, the mutual recognition of professional qualifications, for example for doctors, accountants and architects, must continue to be agreed on by sector. That hasn’t happened yet and it’s a “big problem” for businesses, Thiru said.

Johnson’s Brexit deal did not include financial services, an industry that accounts for nearly 11% of state tax revenue and 1.1 million jobs, according to PwC and the Office of National Statistics.

The prospects for an agreement that would give Britain the same market access rights as some other non-EU countries are slim and could further undermine London’s position as Europe’s leading financial city.

Since the referendum, international financial services companies have migrated nearly £ 1.3 trillion ($ 1.8 trillion) in assets and relocated 7,600 jobs from the UK to the European Union, according to data collected by EY. Amsterdam has already overtaken London as Europe’s premier equity trading center.

“The days of significant asset and job relocation announcements appear to be over and are likely to be replaced by the slower yet sustained migration of people and assets to Europe for compliance purposes,” said Omar Ali, managing partner for financial services at EY in a report last month.

Long-term consequences

Leaving the EU single market means the end of smooth trade and higher costs for UK companies, even if they have adjusted to the new way of doing business.

“It is important to realize that there are some teething problems, but there are also problems that can arise when the long-term consequences of a difficulty in trading come home,” Winters said.

This will bring FDI to the UK over time as companies looking to serve the European market will no longer be based in the UK, he added.

The new trade relationship is expected to result in a long-term production loss in the UK of around 4% compared to remaining in the European Union, according to the UK Bureau of Budgetary Responsibility, which produces economic forecasts for the government. Exports and imports will be around 15% lower in the long term.

According to Jerzewska, the trade expert, the main consequence will be the gradual shift in supply chains as EU manufacturers find alternative suppliers. “Businesses follow the path of least resistance and the new barriers to trade may make UK suppliers less competitive in the EU market,” she said.