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U.S. corporate travel spending is projected to be up to 25-35% of 2019 levels by the end of 2021 and up to 80% by the end of 2022 – although the full recovery depends on how much the pandemic has changed the way companies view business travel .

That’s according to a new report from consulting firm Deloitte, which found that virtual meeting technology could make companies rethink the need for some travel.

In the US at least, airlines have seen domestic air travel return to near 2019 levels in recent months, although leisure travelers are primarily driving the boom. Business travel, usually the most lucrative segment, and international travel remain deeply depressed.

The Deloitte report, released on August 3, predicts a steady increase in spending on business travel in the US through the end of 2022.

“Many companies plan to significantly accelerate their return to the office after Labor Day,” which will take place in early September, the report said. “Travel managers have identified this shift, particularly the return of customers to the office, as the main driving force behind travel.”

The report is based on a survey of 150 travel managers and interviews with executives from companies who spent an average of $ 123 million on business travel in 2019. During the pandemic, many companies cut travel spending by 90%, it said.

Deloitte predicts that US companies’ travel spending will hit 25-35% of 2019 levels by year-end and will increase to 35-45% of the 2019 benchmark in the first quarter of 2022.

“The barriers to international travel should continue to be dismantled, but cross-border travel will lag far behind domestic travel,” the report said. “Concerns about the risk and inconvenience of crossing the border will continue to affect traffic on the transatlantic routes and Asia will remain difficult to visit.”

By the end of 2022, spending should reach 65-80% of the 2019 level, predicts Deloitte.

“Travel managers expect a lot of catching up to do in the second half of 2022 … By the end of 2022, US business travel could approach its new normal, the level that it will maintain for the next few years,” the report said.

However, the negative impact of the pandemic on business travel could be long-lasting.

Kevin Michaels, managing director of the aerospace consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory, says the pandemic could drive “structural change” in internal travel – that is, travel to meet employees with colleagues. That segment used to make up about a third of business travel, he said during the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics’ virtual aviation forum on Aug. 2.

Companies that held quarterly in-house sales meetings prior to Covid could resume those meetings, but only twice a year, he says.

According to the Deloitte report, the pandemic has “convinced companies” that online virtual meeting platforms are often sufficient, especially for internal meetings. Such a technology “challenges the hypothesis that redistributed workforces will increase the demand for travel for team meetings,” says Deloitte.